한일군사정보보호협정 진행 내막

[빛의나라]

반대를 위한 반대가 아니라, 제대로 알고 반대하기 위해 우리나라 바깥에선 뭐라고들 하나 구글검색을 해봤어요.

당연히 안에서 직면하고 살고 있는 우리 스스로가 느끼는 체감 시국이 가장 절실하지만 때때로 숲 밖에서 전체모습을 보고 다시 관점을 정비하는 것도 필요하니까요.

왜 국방부에서 끔찍한 일제강점기의 잊지못할 역사로 인한 국민들의 적대적인 감정과 결사반대의 위험을 무시(?) 혹은 무릅쓰고 한일군사정보보호협정을 체결하려고 하는지, 그들의 대의명분은 무엇인지, 단지 이익으로 묶인 비리형 인간들의 눈먼 광기인지 알고 싶었어요.

정말 미치지 않고서야, 이렇게 국민들이 절대반대하는 외교군사협약을 내세울 아무 명분없이 추진할까요? 바보들도 아닐텐데?

오늘 구글검색에서 The Diplomat (외교)이라는 인터넷 신문에 난 기사를 하나 읽어 봤어요. John Lee라는 사람이 올린 기사인데 이글을 보니 미국, 일본, 북한과 얽힌 국제적인 한국의 현상황과 한국정치판세에 대해 좀더 알겠네요.

일단 지금 한국 현정부 여당의 문제때문에 보수당에서 진보당 정부로 바뀐다면 혹은 바뀌었을 때를 예상하고 쓴 기사였고 그런 상태에서 현재의 야당이 정권을 잡을 때 성숙해 져야 하는 이유가 정치적 사실들을 근거로 나옵니다.

먼저 트럼프의 동북아시아관련 선거공약: 1)주한미군의 체류비용 전부를 한국에서 부담하든지 아니면 주한미군 전체 철수.
2)일본과 북한사이에 전쟁이 벌어져도 관여치 않겠다.
3)한미보호무역무효화.
박대통령이 트럼프 당선후 그와 전화를 해서 계속 우호적인 관계를 유지하겠다는 이야기는 들었지만 정작 문제가 되는 주한미군 체류비용에 대한 언급은 전혀 없었기 때문에 그 통화내용은 전혀 상황개선과 관계가 없습니다.

만약 트럼프의 임기가 시작되면 미국이 어떻게 나올지 모른다는 게 문제입니다. 트럼프가 동북아 정치판도에 무지하다는 평이 자자해 일단 임기가 시작되면 공약 어기고 다르게 행동을 할 수도 있겠지요.그건 그의 변덕에 기대하는 수밖에 없고 일단 공약대로 밀고 나간다면 이제 한국은 미국에도 기댈 수 없고 하니 진짜 자주국방을 해얄 텐데 그 자신이 없어 미국의 보호막을 잃게 될 한국, 일본이 뭉치자 이런 그림인 모양입니다.

일본이 더 요주의 대상이냐, 북한이 더 요주의 대상이냐 문제인데 국방부는 북한이 더위험하다고 결론을 내렸나 봅니다.

정치, 경제, 군사 강대국들 틈바구니에 끼여 지도자 이하 전국민이 똘똘 뭉쳐서 나라를 보호해도 힘들 상황에 정권과 지도부는 사리사욕도 채우느라 제대로 일들을 못하네요.

어쨌든 어서 청렴하고 지혜로운 정권과 지도자가 세워져 우리나라를 잘 이끌어 갔으면 좋겠습니다.



ㅡSouth Korea's Left Needs to Rethink Its North Korea Positionㅡ

Right now South Korea cannot afford the pro-North, anti-American tendencies of the opposition.

By John Lee
November 15, 2016

On November 10, a South Korean lawmaker from the main opposition Minjoo Party, Rep. Yun Ho-jung, said he would seek a dismissal motionagainst Defense Minister Han Min-koo if South Korea continues to move forward to sign the Security of Military Information Agreement — an agreement with Tokyo to share military intelligence on North Korea.

This comes on the heels of the country’s three opposition parties releasing a joint statement a day earlier expressing their opposition to the agreement claiming that it would escalate geopolitical tension in and around the Korean Peninsula.

When one considers their position for even a moment, one realizes that the claim makes no sense whatsoever. The need to share intelligence with Tokyo would never have been made an issue if North Korea didn’t pose an existential threat in the first place.

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Time and again, whether it is the Terminal High Altitude Area Deployment (THAAD) deployment, joint U.S.-South Korean military drills, or intelligence-sharing with Japan, South Korea’s progressives have consistently voiced their opposition, claiming that they would make matters worse while only perfunctorily stating that North Korea should not escalate tensions.

This should come as no surprise considering the kind of rhetoric that has come from South Korea’s progressives in the past. Only a month ago when President Park Geun-hye gave a speech calling on North Koreans to abandon their country and defect, Rep. Park Jie-won, the floor leader of the People’s Party, accused the president of making “a declaration of war.” Not to be outdone, Ki Dong-min, a party spokesperson for the Minjoo Party, said President Park seemed to have been “on the warpath.”

Considering the fact that the Minjoo Party has also committed itself toopposing the deployment of THAADmissile batteries, should the next South Korean president come from the Minjoo Party (and that does appear likely considering Park’s recent scandals), it’s more than plausible that South Korea’s policy toward North Korea might take a sharp left turn.

However, unlike progressives and liberals in other countries around the world, an ascension of progressivism in South Korea spells doom for those facing oppression in North Korea.

Due to actions taken by Moon Jae-inand his former boss President Roh Moo-hyun, the South Korean government repeatedly abstained from UN General Assembly resolutions on North Korean human rights in the mid-2000s. Furthermore, South Korean progressives also have a history ofstifling South Koreans’ right to free speech in order to appease Pyongyang.

Of course, none of this is to suggest that South Korea’s conservatives are paragons of liberty. They’re not. But considering their past, the call of South Korean progressives for peace reminds one less of Shimon Peresand more of Neville Chamberlain.

However, their moral rot is not the most pressing issue for South Korea. Considering the still unbelievable Donald Trump victory in the race to the American presidency, there is a much more urgent thing to consider if and when South Korean progressives take over the reins of power from the scandal-ridden conservatives. And that is the fact that South Korea’s progressives have a long and sordid history of anti-Americanism.

Should South Korean progressives be tempted to exploit anti-American sentiments again for any reason whatsoever, President Trump’s likely braggadocious response might be less genteel than President George W. Bush’s response while he was in the White House. After all, one of the more consistent things that Trump campaigned on was the need for America to project a much tougher image abroad.

It would not be an exaggeration to say that Trump has shown little love for South Korea during the campaign. He suggested that South Korea ought to pay 100 percent of the cost of stationing American troops and military hardware in the country. He has also called the South Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement a “job-killing deal” that has resulted in trade deficits for the United States. Trump’s campaign went on record saying that he wants to go back to “ground zero” with regard to the trade deal.

Furthermore, Trump has repeatedly shown himself to be greatly ignorant of international politics, particularly when he expressed a blasé attitude about the possibility of a North Korean attack against South Korea or Japan, America’s staunchest allies in Asia. Asked about the possibility of war between Japan and North Korea, Trump responded, “it would be a terrible thing but if they do [go to war], they do.”

The South Korean government is desperately trying to put on appearances that everything is still normal. However, one of the most telling things about Trump’s phone call with Park, where he reaffirmed Washington’s commitment to the alliance, was that not a word was said about renegotiating cost sharing plans or troop-withdrawal, thus leaving room for plenty of deal-making (and arm-twisting) between Seoul and Washington.

Unlike Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump is an unknown. A lot of the uncertainty may have to do with the fact that Trump likely doesn’t know just how much he doesn’t know. But what he does know is that he wants to appear as a strong leader and come January next year, he can do that because he will be the commander-in-chief of the world’s most powerful military.

In order to thrive in the Age of Trump, South Korea is going to have to rethink the way it has conducted its foreign policy. It’s going to have to bury hatchets and cooperate closely with Japan, which is also likely to be nervous about Trump. Seoul is also going to have to act more cautiously in its approach to the United States, as it can no longer take Washington’s support for granted. The calculus has fundamentally shifted.

In short, if and when South Korea’s progressives do take over from the conservatives in the next election (or after Park resigns amid the scandals that are engulfing her administration), they are going to have to grow up and do so quickly.

[그러니까]

여차하면 일본 자위대를 불러 들이겠다는거?
구한말 동학혁명 당시와 비슷하게 되어 가는건가요?

[빛의나라]

저는 우리가 상황을 제대로 아는 게 기본이라고 생각합니다.

일본과 군사기밀 공유하는 거 저도 반대인데 저들이 왜 이런 일을 추진하는지 이유는 제대로 알고 그래도 반대면 그때 반대하는 건 무지하게 앞에 무슨 일이 벌어질지 모르고 반대하는 거보다 낫지요.

가상할 수 있는 최악의 두 시나리오는 미군 철수하고 우리나라 혼자 힘으로 북한이나 일본 둘중 하나하고 전쟁 나는 건데 저는 선택해야 한다면 일본보다는 북한을 선택하기 때문에 이번 한일군사정보보호협정 반대라는 겁니다.

일본인 개개인중에는 좋은 사람도 많지만 일본정부는 절대 믿을 수가 없어서 당하려면 차라리 북한에 당하겠다는 각오가 돼 있어서요.

전쟁이 안나는 게 제일 좋겠지만 늘 최악의 가설을 세우고 준비하는 게 정책이니까 이 정도 마음가짐인 게 확실하면 그땐 정직하게 한일군사정보보호횝정에 반대할 수 있는 거죠.

[Sas]

북한하고 통일하려고 해야지, 북한 도발 가능성으로 전 식민지 통치자인 일본이랑 동맹 맺는 다는 건 말도 안되요.

북한이랑 손잡는 쪽으로 나아 가야지...